NatureScot has ruled against a licence for this year’s guga harvest.

Our Board’s decision: 2026 guga hunt licence application

We received a licence application from the Men of Ness for a 2026 guga hunt. After assessing the application against the legislation and using the most recent scientific evidence, our Board’s decision is to refuse a licence.

We have used the latest information available and commissioned an updated population model to help predict the effect of the guga hunt on the gannet population. As a result, we have concluded an adverse impact is possible, both at the applicants’ requested application limit of 2,000 juvenile gannets, and at a reduced limit of 500.

Our Board has therefore refused the 2026 licence on that basis.

This decision does not prevent the Men of Ness applying for and obtaining a licence in future years. The hunt is recognised in law under the Wildlife and Countryside Act and NatureScot has a duty to consider any licence application based upon the best available science.

Background: A decision to refuse an application is only taken when properly supported through scientific evidence and/or in reference to relevant legislation, and the reasons can be provided to the applicant.

2026 Licence Decision 

 

Q. Why was this decision taken to NatureScot’s Board?

A. The Board provides leadership, direction and oversight to ensure NatureScot carries out its functions effectively, efficiently, and in accordance with legislation, policies, and priorities. Where issues attract significant public interest, Board decisions ensure that the legislative and scientific expertise of our staff is supported at the highest level, consistent with our approach to other high-profile matters.

Q. Has NatureScot refused the licence because of pressure from anti-guga hunt groups?

A. No. Our decision has been taken in line with the legal framework and the most recent scientific evidence. The guga hunt continues to be recognised as a lawful activity under the Wildlife and Countryside Act, and we have been clear that the decision this year does not prevent the Men of Ness applying for and obtaining a licence in future years.

While we have noted there appears to be significant opposition to the guga hunt, we have also received a number of expressions of support for the hunt. However, neither position has played a role in our decision-making.

Q. What information did the Board use to reach their decision?

A. The Board’s decision was taken within the relevant legislation, including the provisions of the Wildlife and Countryside Act, and the Conservation (Natural Habitats, &c.) Regulations 1994 (‘the Habitats Regulations’).

Under the requirements of the Habitats Regulations, NatureScot must conclude that the taking of 2,000 juvenile gannets would not adversely affect the integrity of the North Rona and Sula Sgeir Special Protection Area (SPA) before granting a licence. In 2026, the licensing decision was made by the Board and as part of the process, they reviewed the most recent scientific evidence on the Sula Sgeir gannet population including the potential impacts of avian flu, bycatch (being caught accidentally during commercial fishing), offshore wind farms, and the guga hunt itself.

Having considered the evidence, assessments and recommendation, the Board decided that the licence application for 2026 should be refused.

Background

The avian flu outbreak is specifically the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 strain that led to the mass mortalities in 2021-23.

Q. How big a factor is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI or avian flu)?

A. Avian flu (HPAI) has been circulating widely within wild bird populations since winter 2020/2021. The outbreak was unprecedented, causing devastating losses for many seabird species in Scotland as well as the rest of the British Isles and Europe. In 2022, the virus struck northern gannet (Morus bassanus) breeding colonies and caused a 22% population decline in Scotland overall with even greater declines seen at the larger Scottish colonies. The disease continues to have a long-term impact on some seabird populations and their recovery, and we are working to better understand the extent of this. At Sula Sgeir, it is estimated that the gannet population declined by between 23-41% as a result of avian flu - and we recognised the need for an updated modelling approach which could help us to understand the long-term impact of one-off events like avian flu as a key factor alongside the other known and quantifiable pressures of bycatch and offshore wind farms.

Should there ever be another avian flu outbreak, we now have the modelling capability to assess its impact.

Background

The recent avian flu outbreak is the main cause of the recent declines in the gannet population at Sula Sgeir, and at other colonies in Scotland. What is far less certain is how gannet populations will recover. For example, it is likely that inexperienced birds will have replaced some of the mature breeding birds that died because of avian flu, which has implications for breeding success. Gannet chicks require about five years to mature before they become part of the breeding population, so we do not yet know what impact chick mortality during the avian flu outbreak will have on the population until the 2027 breeding season.

Q. Why did you issue a licence last year and not in 2026?

A. When the first licence application after the avian flu (HPAI) outbreak was received in 2025, we considered the previous 2016 Sula Sgeir population model (Trinder, 2016) no longer suitable to predict the impact of a hunt on the post-HPAI gannet population.

In order to understand the predicted impact of a hunt on the post-avian flu gannet population, we used the Natural England Seabird PVA Tool (a standard tool used by nature conservation bodies to predict the impacts of offshore wind developments on seabird populations) to run updated model scenarios for different take levels using the latest 2024 gannet population as the baseline. Our interpretation of the model predictions was that after the avian flu-related decline in the Sula Sgeir gannet population, a take of 2,000 was no longer sustainable, but that it would be possible to licence a take of 500.

The 2025 licence was issued based on the best available data at that time and provided a more up-to-date evidence base than the previous 2016 model. Alongside the 2025 model predictions, we acknowledged the limitations of the Natural England Seabird PVA tool; namely that the tool was unable to model one-off mortality events like avian flu or other sources of ‘man-made’ mortality like bycatch or offshore wind farms.

We committed to commissioning a new population model that would be able to incorporate the impact of one-off mortality events (avian flu) and other sources of mortality influenced by human behaviour. The new model was produced in 2026, and when a one-off mortality event (avian flu) was included in the model, avian flu was predicted to have the largest single impact on the long-term recovery of the gannet population of all the impacts considered. When the cumulative impact of avian flu, offshore wind farms, bycatch, and the gannet hunt were understood together, we have concluded an adverse impact is possible on the Sula Sgeir gannet population at any take level. Our Board refused the 2026 licence on that basis.

Q. Was there new evidence for this decision?

A. The key piece of new evidence for the 2026 licensing decision is the production of a new population model which is able to predict the impact of one-off mortality events like avian flu (HPAI), and other, ‘man-made’ sources like offshore wind farms and bycatch. For more context, please see question above.

Future Applications

Q. Does NatureScot have powers to ban the guga hunt?

A. No. The hunt is recognised in law under the Wildlife and Countryside Act, and we will consider any licence application in line with the legal framework and most recent scientific evidence. The decision this year does not prevent the Men of Ness applying for, and obtaining, a licence in future years.

An end to the guga hunt would require a change to legislation and is a matter for the Scottish Government and Parliament.

Q. What will happen if the Men of Ness make future licence applications?

A. We have been clear that the guga hunt is recognised in law and a decision this year does not prevent the Men of Ness applying for and obtaining a licence in future years. We will assess any future application at that time in line with the legal framework and based on the most recent scientific evidence.

Q. Will scientific evidence continue to be collected to inform future licensing decisions?

A. New gannet population survey work was collected at Sula Sgeir in July 2026, with the updated count data expected to be available in the autumn. We will use the 2026 work to further develop our understanding of the range of different scenarios linked to potential changes in gannet immigration, and to better understand gannets’ recovery and breeding patterns on Sula Sgeir post-avian flu (HPAI). Where evidence shows there is a risk a hunt could adversely impact a sustainable population, we would likely refuse that application.

Additional survey work is anticipated in 2027. Importantly, this will be five years after avian flu, the time when chicks born in 2022 would be expected to mature and become part of the adult breeding population. Unfortunately, the results of next year’s survey are unlikely to be available in time to inform any licence application. This is due to time needed to complete analyses of images taken during the breeding season. However, the 2027 survey would underpin subsequent assessment work in 2028.

Alongside the population counts, NatureScot will also explore further refinements to the population model, building on feedback from a member of the Expert Panel to NatureScot’s Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) as part of a quality assurance review of the 2026 model.

Q. What would have to change for NatureScot to grant a licence?

A. Based on the most up-to-date science, we have concluded an adverse impact is possible on the Sula Sgeir gannet population at any level in 2026. Our Board refused the 2026 licence on that basis.

We will continue to improve the scientific evidence-base, through new population counts in 2026 and another anticipated for 2027, as well as ongoing refinement of our population model. Collectively, the planned work programme will help to reduce uncertainties and improve our understanding of population recovery following avian flu. This will allow us to determine whether a hunt can resume and a level of take that is sustainable in the long-term.

Animal Welfare

Q. What about welfare considerations?

A. We recognise the strength of feeling expressed by many people on animal welfare aspects. In assessing the 2026 application, we considered whether the proposed activity would be likely to constitute any offences under relevant legislation. We asked for, and were given information on this by the applicant, from our legal advisors, and from specialist, external advisors, to assist with our assessment. We will continue to consider animal welfare in our future decisions.

Q. How are juvenile gannets killed?

A. The juvenile gannets are captured using a traditional method specific to the guga hunt. The details of how the activity is conducted is set out in a method statement supplied by the applicant. This information is available on our website:B. Board of NatureScot Meeting - Exceptional Board Meeting - 03 August 2026 - Annex 1 (Redacted) - …

Q. What happens if juvenile gannets are not killed humanely as part of a guga hunt?

A. Any offence under the Animal Health and Welfare (Scotland) Act would be a matter for Police Scotland. NatureScot would take very seriously any report of an offence linked to our licensing and would share this with Police Scotland.

Protest Activity

Q. What is NatureScot’s view of non-peaceful/criminal protester activity:

A. While we understand people have the right to protest peacefully, the aggression and intimidation tactics of some anti-guga hunt protestors comes at significant personal cost to our expert and dedicated staff, as they try to do their day-to-day jobs. It also comes at significant cost to the taxpayer, with criminal damage to our offices and increased security measures currently standing at more than £110,000. Regular social media threats and aggression have been particularly concerning. Where this happens, we have been obliged to contact Police Scotland.

It is troubling that some feel they can bring about a change in the law through threats and intimidation. We rely on sound science to navigate a clear path through complex issues and often conflicting interests. The hunt is recognised in law under the Wildlife and Countryside Act. We will assess and, if appropriate, approve any licence application in accordance with the legal framework and based on the most recent scientific evidence. We continue to be open to conversations about our work.